Citigroup Director Sees Central Bank-buying Of Gold As Uncertain: What Is His Investment Advice?

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67 WALL STREET, New York – February 8, 2010 – the Wall Street Transcript has just published its Gold & Precious Metals, Base Metals and non Metals Mining Report offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. this 04 page feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. The full issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.

Topics covered: 2010 Gold Market Outlook — Commodity Price Projections And European Utilities — Iron Ore Price Projections — Coal Price Projections — Oil And Natural Gas Price Projections — Copper Price Projections — Relationship between Base Metals, Precious Metals And Commodities — Accommodative Fed Policy And Metals Pricing — Petrodollars And Gold Price Relationship — Supercycle In Gold Demand — Platinum And Palladium Demand

Companies include: Anglo Platinum (AMS); Hecla Mining (HL); Lihir Gold (LGL); Lonmin PLC (LMI); Silver Falcon Mining (SFMI); Ventana Gold (VEN); Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM); Alcoa (AA); America West Resources (AWSR); American Smelting and Refining Company (ASARCO); AngloGold Ashanti (AU); Arch Coal (ACI); Aurizon (AZK); BHP Billiton’s (BHP); Barrick Gold (ABX); CEZ (BAACEZ.PR); CONSOL Energy (CNX); Cameco (CCJ); Capital Gold (CGC); Centamin (CNT.AX); Centerra (CG.To); China Natural Resources, inc. (CHNR); Claude Resources, inc. (CGR); Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF); Compania de Minas Buenaventura (BVN); Conoco  (COP); Detour Gold (DGC.TO); East Asia (EAS.V); Eldorado Gold (EGO); Endeavour Silver Corp. (EXK); Entree Gold (EGI); Excellon (EXN.TO); Freeport-McMoRan (FCX); Fresnillo (FRES); Geovic Mining (GVCM); Goldcorp (GG); Grupo Mexico (GMEXICOB.MX); IAMGOLD (IAG); Impala Platinum (IMP); Kimber Resources (KBX); Kinross (KGC); Lake Shore (LSG.TO); Massey Energy (MEE); Medoro Resources (MRS); Newcrest Mining (NCM); Newmont Mining (NEM); OMV (OMV); Pan American Lithium (PL); Peabody Energy (BTU); Penoles (PE_OLES); Quaterra Resources (QMM); RWE (RWEOY.PK); Randgold Resources (GOLD); Red back Mining (RBI); Rio Tinto’s (RIO.L); Royal Standard Minerals (RYSMF); Solitario (XPL); Southern Copper (PCU); Tesoro (TSO); Thunder Mountain Gold (THMG); Total (TOT); Vale (VALE); Valero (VLO); Yamana (AUY).

In the following brief excerpt from the 104 page report, David Thurtell discusses the outlook for the Precious Metals sector and for investors.

David Thurtell is a Director and Commodity Strategist in Citigroup Global Markets (London), where he formulates strategies for Citigroup’s metals trading and sales teams. mr. Thurtell recently joined Citi from BNP Paribas in September 2008, where he was Head of metals research. he is regularly quoted on Reuters, Bloomberg and Platts. before moving to London, he was Head of commodity research at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. he also spent five years at Australia’s central bank, where he was second in charge of forecasting in the economic research department. mr. Thurtell is Australian, and an honors and master’s graduate of the University of New England, Armidale, New South Wales, Australia.

TWST: lately we’ve seen gold soar to new levels or close to new levels. Why is that? What’s driving this trend?

Mr. Thurtell: I think basically in the last couple of months, a few factors have pushed it to new record highs. Probably the main factor was renewed dollar weakness and still very, very loose liquidity conditions throughout the world, with a lot of central banks maintaining ultra-easy monetary policy. Central banks and other investors want to diversify away from U.S. dollar holdings, and that’s really given the market an extra fillip as well. In November we saw the Indian central bank, Reserve Bank of India, and other Asian banks buying significant amounts of gold. I think there’s a view that the fortunes of the U.S. dollar or the U.S. economy generally are not as strong as they have been. the U.S. economy is starting to rebound after the crisis, but I think the consensus is that the recovery will be a slow one. I think the outlook is for the U.S. economy to experience modest growth this year and next. But there are still quite a lot of problems to work through, with banks on some of the loans they’ve got. There’s still a chronic housing oversupply.

Generally speaking, the outlook for the U.S. economy is just not what it was a couple of years ago. In contrast, in other countries and regions, particularly Asia, the prospects are much more promising. so people are wanting to get out of U.S. dollar holdings and U.S. dollar assets, and go into other assets, such as gold. I might tell you that although they’ve been getting out of the U.S. dollar, they haven’t been rushing towards things like the euro and the yen. European growth is very, very poor. A lot of banks have got big problems in the eurozone. And Japan has had a shocking downturn in industrial production. And even now that it’s rebounding significantly, levels of activity are still a long way below where they were a year or more ago. so the outlook for the eurozone and Japan – in other words, for the euro- and yen-denominated assets – aren’t that fantastic either. so while people are getting out of the U.S, they are not rushing for the euro and yen; they’re trying to look at what other assets they can look to. Gold is one of them, and I think metals and other resources more generally. China needs this stuff, and India will need them in 10 years’ time industrially. India really is being mentioned a lot more these days. A lot of cars are being made for the Indian market, and in the industrial and metal space, copper, aluminum, zinc, platinum and palladium are very much sought after.

TWST: where do we go from here?

Mr. Thurtell: Essentially since 2003, in my view anyway, gold was pretty much a one-way bet because the dollar was set to weaken further, the gold hedge book had further to unwind and ETFs were gaining in popularity. Finally, the surge in China and strong economic activity generally was putting more and more upward pressure on oil prices. I think the outlook was with oil rising that posed a number of threats to world growth, but it also helped OPEC petrodollars revenues. And that was favorable for gold as well. In the last year, oil has had a big fall. my currency strategist tells me that the U.S. dollar hasn’t got that much further to fall. There’s not that much of a gold hedge book left to buy back, maybe 250 tons. If anything, with credit harder to come by, small, high-cost gold miners might be inclined to put gold hedges back on, particularly now that gold prices are so high in historical terms.

Finally, the ETFs probably had the bulk of their gains. so a lot of the positives that have driven the gold price higher over the last decade really have waned or are starting to wane seriously. interest rates will remain relatively low and liquidity high, which will be a big positive for gold. all that leaves me only mildly friendly towards gold. If my wife says to me, "where are we going put our money?" I can pick from real estate, equities, cash, bonds or gold, I’d have to say I’m a bit reluctant to buy gold here at close to the all-time highs. At about $1,130 today, I just can’t get excited about paying more or less record prices for gold. If it fell to $600 or $700 an ounce, I would be happy to buy some. But I think the horse has bolted to some extent.

The Wall Street Transcript is a unique service for investors and industry researchers – providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs and research analysts. this 04 page special issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online .

The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewees nor does it make stock recommendations.

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